Tuesday, 24 January 2012

YOU GOTTA NO WHEN TO HOLD EM...


So, whoever the genius was in the Labor party that came up with the idea of replacing Harry Jenkins, must be laughing like a big fat hairy spider right now.

It was a simple stroke of genius that completely blindsided the Liberals, and secured the Gillard government until the next election.

It was simply brilliant.

Not many of us would have realised the powerful impact that this seemingly simple change made.

When Harry Jenkins, who had been the Speaker of the House since Gillard came into power, suddenly decided to resign his position and return to the ‘trenches’, everyone was surprised.

Except for the Labor party power brokers that were in the know.  And of course, Mr Jenkins.  Oh, and let’s not forget: slippery Pete.

Mr Slipper.  Slippery Pete; the Deputy Speaker of the House.  The Liberal MP from the seat of Fisher in the lovely state of Queensland.  Now a Liberal defector, and an ‘independent’, having cut all ties with his beloved Liberal party to cross the floor, and ally himself with the enemy.

Slippery Pete, who had been told by the Liberal party that he would not have their support at the next Federal election, and that they would be placing a new Liberal candidate in Fisher, enacted a brutal revenge upon them.

By crossing the floor and taking up the position as speaker, he succeeded in shifting the power in the Lower House from 75 Labor; 74 Liberal, to 76 Labor; 73 Liberal, and handing Julia Gillard a precious three seat majority in the house.

Now standing as another independent in the Lower House, Slippery Pete is firmly in the Prime Ministers back pocket, even though he publicly assures us that he cannot guarantee supporting the government when called upon; it will depend on the issues and how he and his electorate feel about them.

Yeah.  Right.

Let’s forget that he’s under investigation for alleged (and I stress: alleged) miss-use of public funds. Travel expenses that were ridiculous and meal and personal expense bills that were out of control; Slippery Pete was desperately dodging a bullet in home town Fisher, where the entire electorate and local press had him well and truly in the cross hairs.

Mr Slipper was looking down the barrel at the end of his career.  Thank God for the Labor government, who kindly stepped in and offered him a lifeline.

Worked out well for everyone, didn’t it?  Positively brilliant.

The Liberal party wanted to rid themselves of a man that was allegedly (there’s that word again) questionable in his handling of expenses, and they indirectly succeeded in doing so; handing Slippery Pete over to the Labor party (as an independent), where he can spend quality time with the likes of the honourable, Craig Thompson MP, who also has trouble handling finances (allegedly).

So, big deal I hear you say?

Big deal indeed.  In a minority government, a three seat lead is crucial.  Why, I hear you ask?  Well, let me explain.

Let’s go back to Slippery Pete’s new bffl; Craig Thompson.  Member for Dobell, who apparently thinks spending $2500 of union member’s money on a night at a brothel, is okay (allegedly).  Who is in more shit than a duck on a settling pond, and if found guilty of miss-use of union’s funds, could be arsed from Parliament.

Now, in reality, if Mr Thompson is forced to resign, the seat of Dobell could hold a bi-election to find a new representative.  The political experts believe that Labor will not win this seat again, which means it could fall into Liberal hands.

Previously holding a one seat majority, this would mean that the Labor government, even with the assistance of the independents, could not hold power, and back to the polls we would go, where I dare say, Labor may not win.

However, now that Slipper Pete has enacted his revenge on Big Tony and his Liberal buddies, Craig Thompson can burn and Ms Gillard will be the one laughing like a big fat hairy spider, because she will still have a majority.  Just.

However, the likelihood that anything happening Mr Thompson before the next election, is very slim.  His ‘issues’ will be dragged out and stalled for as long as humanly (and politically) possible.

So where is the big gamble in all of this?

Well, the big gamble lies in picturesque Tasmania.  More specifically, in the seat of Denison, which is held by independent MP, Mr Andrew Wilkie.

So what does a little independent member of parliament from the state that everyone forgets about, but loves visiting, have to do with anything?  Interesting you ask.

Mr Wilkie’s sailed his way into parliament on the back of a few simple policies; one of which was pokie reform.  Like Senator Nick Xanaphon, Mr Wilkie’s obsession with pokie reform is almost evangelistic.

So much so, that the support he threw behind the Gillard government that carried them into office, hinged on it.  Post-election, Mr Wilkie found himself in a very powerful position to negotiate, as is the nature of politics. 

The key to offering his support of the Gillard government was that they implement his suggested pokie reforms before May 2012.  However, the Gillard government has received so much back lash from its members, electorates and powerful industry leaders regarding these reforms, that it’s been reeling.  They are boxed into a corner on this issue, and the only way out, was to break their promise to Mr Wilkie.

Yes, another broken promise.

However, doing so would cost them power.  Well, would have. 

Now, with the ‘slippery’ replacement of Mr Jenkins, the Gillard government just picked up the ace that gave them the winning hand.  Mr Wilkie placed all of his bets, played his hand, and lost. 

The perfect poker play.

Now, even though he declares that he may, and I stress may; withdraw his support, it will be for nothing.  The Gillard government cannot lose.

His massive gamble was brilliantly outplayed by the masters of deception.

So, a seemingly simple change of position for Mr Jenkins, has provided the massive cushion that Julia Gillard needed to secure her generous arse in The Castle.  Well, just for a little while longer, anyway.

Happy gambling.

Peace out.

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